The Road to Santa Clara: It's NEVER easy

Patriots -3.5 at Broncos – A lot of sharps are on Denver plus points in this one, but the more I thought about this game, the more I like New England.  Jarrett Stidham is a career backup who has not thrown a pass since 2023 and has never thrown a pass in a meaningful game that resulted in his team winning.    Yes the Broncos – counting last week against Buffalo – have won 11 straight games decided by 8 points or fewer, but Bo Nix was a huge part of many of those wins, and how long can you continue to tempt fate and keep winning?   Just ask last year’s Kansas City Chiefs.   And if you look at the Broncos last 4 games, they have only played one solid half of offensive football (first half last week vs Buffalo).     They lost 34-20 to the Jags at home on 12/21, then barely got by a Mahomes-less and depleted Chiefs team on Christmas, and on 10 days rest could not muster a single offensive touchdown against the Chargers on January 4th, a game in which the Broncos had to have to get the number one seed, and a game that was meaningless for the Chargers in terms of playoff seeding.   On top of Nix being out, rookie WR Pat Bryant left last week’s divisional with concussion symptoms and WR Tony Franklin left last week’s game in the 2^nd quarter with a hamstring injury.    Bryant is not listed on this week’s injury report, and Franklin is questionable.   Franklin had 65 receptions during the regular season and 6 touchdowns.   And quite frankly Broncos leading WR Courtland Sutton did not look all that great last week, and nearly knocked HIMSELF out trying to catch a pass.     Simply put, there are no Tier 1 players on this Broncos offense.   They HAVE to win his game with their defense and special teams.   Unfortunately for the Broncos, the Patriots have one of the best special teams units in the league, and the Patriots have a quarterback in Drake Maye that has thrown 35 touchdowns on the season.    And they look DETERMINED – those 2 TD catches by Boutte and Diggs last week were next-level.    And they can RUN the ball.   My biggest concern with the Patriots is Drake Maye’s fumbling issues (lost 3 fumbles in the last 2 weeks) – but if he plays a clean game they should win handily.   I look for the Patriots D to dominate Stidham and the Broncos offense, forcing multiple turnovers.    The second half we will see a lot of Rhamondre Stevenson and TreVeyon Henderson.     Great defense and 3 yards and a cloud of dust sometimes is boring, but it is getting New England back to the Super Bowl.

Final Score Prediction:  Patriots 23 Broncos 10

Rams +2.5 at Seahawks – Seattle has won eight straight games, the last three by double digits; however, the last week has not gone well for them on the injury front.   Running back Zach Charbonnet – who scored 12 touchdowns on the season - injured his knee in the divisional and is out for the season.   Perhaps more importantly quarterback Sam Darnold is dealing with a lingering oblique injury and had to split reps at practice this week with Drew Lock.   Yes, Darnold and the Seahawks beat the 49ers last week 41-6, but San Fran was running on fumes.   When Seattle and the Rams last played on December 18th, the Seahawks won 38-37 in overtime, but the Rams had 581 yards offense in that game, and that was playing WITHOUT Davante Adams.  The biggest knock against the Rams heading into the playoffs was their defense and special teams, but both appear to have stabilized.   Harrison Mevis (MIZZOU) has been clutch at kicker, and the defense picked off Caleb Williams 3 times and had multiple 4^th down stops last week in Chicago.   Against a less than 100% Seattle offense, I think Verse, Lake and company play well today.   And are you really going to go against Sean McVay and Matthew Stafford in this setting?   Outside of Reid and Mahomes, is there a better head coach/quarterback combination in the game today?   Kyren, Puka, Davante – even TE Colby Parkinson – these are WEAPONS.   The Rams win straight up and are back in California for the Super Bowl again.

Final Score Prediction:   Rams 27 Seahawks 17