The Bearded Talisman's Week 9 NFL Picks

Lions -8.5 vs Vikings – Lions are coming off a bye week after an impressive MNF win against Tampa. DT Alim McNeill made his season debut against the Bucs, and the Lions D, even though thin in the secondary for that game, held Tampa to 9 points. The Lions enter this game for the most part healthy, while both offensive tackles are questionable for the Vikings, who got annihilated last Thursday against the Chargers. This is JJ McCarthy’s 3^rd pro start, and outside of the big 4^th quarter against the Bears, he has not looked very good. This game is a blowout.

Packers -12.5 vs Panthers – The Packers have the best record in the NFC, and with a little luck would be undefeated. TE Tucker Kraft had a jaw-dropping performance last Sunday Night in Pittsburgh, and with Watson back as a target, along with Jacobs, Doubs, Wilson and Golden, the Packers are one of the most lethal offenses in the league. The Panthers lost at home by 31 points to the Bills last week and have only scored 15 points in the last two weeks. Bryce Young is back for Carolina at QB, but the Panthers have lots of issues on the offensive line; and, the Packers have 9 sacks in the last 2 games.

Broncos +1.5 at Texans – The Broncos have scored 77 points in the last 5 quarters. Even with Surtain out, the Broncos still have a solid defense, and Stroud remains unproven in the big-game setting. The Texans three wins this year were against the Titans, the Mac Jones-led 49ers and the Ravens without LaMar Jackson. Their 4 losses were against the Rams, the Bucs, the Jags and Seahawks. I trust Sean Payton more than I trust C.J. Stroud, and we’re getting 1.5 points.

Chiefs -1.5 at Bills – Mahomes is playing some of his best football ever, and that is saying a lot. The offensive line overall has played much better this year, and it appears that all-world right guard Trey Smith – who sat out last week with back discomfort - WILL start. Yes I know Pacheco is out and Simmons is still out for personal reasons at LT, and his backup Jaylon Moore is questionable with an illness, but the Bills are missing BOTH of their starting defensive tackles this week - Ed Oliver (out for season with a biceps injury) and DaQuan Jones (out for this game with a calf injury). And the Chiefs defense play outstanding defense and special teams. I don’t expect the Chiefs to stop Josh Allen, but I do expect them to contain him and get the W.

Rams -14.0 vs Saints – Tyler Shough is making his first career start on the road against a well-rested Rams team that has outscored its opponents 52-10 over the last 2 games. Like the Packers, the Rams could easily be undefeated right now – had the blocked FG loss to Philly and the fumble at the goal line to the 49ers. The Saints are the worst team in the league. This one is going to get ugly - like 28-3, and the Rams will rest up their starters in the 4th quarter in anticipation of the 49ers the following week.....but, they will still cover.

Circa Survivor Pick: Los Angeles Rams

Last Week 3-2, Season 23-17

Circa Survivor Picks

W1 - Denver

W2 - Baltimore

W3 - Tampa

W4 - Buffalo

W5 - Detroit

W6 - Green Bay

W7 - Kansas City

W8 - Indianapolis

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