The Bearded Talisman's Week 7 NFL Picks

1. Colts +1.5 at Chargers – A lot of money has been made fading the Chargers the last 3 weeks, who are 0-3 ATS and 1-2 SU during this span.    They still have a patchwork offensive line and are still extremely thin at running back.   The Colts have done a really good job beating the mediocre to bad teams, and with all the injuries, the Chargers should fit into that category.

2. Falcons +1.5 at 49ers -   Penix and the Falcons have really stabilized over the last two games, and with just a little luck this week, they’ll be a ½ game out of first in the NFC South.   The 49ers are MASH unit, with numerous key players either out for the season or playing hurt.   At a certain point, Kyle Shanahan can only do so much.   The Falcons just have better players than the 49ers.

3. Chiefs -11.5 vs Raiders – This Chiefs teams has the potential to be the best Chiefs team…..EVER.   Rashee Rice is back, Brock Bowers is doubtful, and this game is a total mismatch.

4. Broncos -7.0 vs Giants -  Rookie QB on the road in Denver vs a Broncos defense that has allowed a grand total of 31 points combined in the last 3 games.   The last time the Giants were on the road they lost to the Saints, and Denver is elite, especially at home.

5. Lions -5.5 vs Bucs – Bucs are extremely thin at WR while the Lions are thin in the secondary, but what sticks out to me is the Lions offense against the Bucs D.   I just don’t see the Bucs – who allowed 463 yards to the Seahawks two weeks ago and 363 yards to Mac Jones last week – being able to stop Goff and company.   Getting healthy and next week’s game against the Saints is more important to the Bucs right now than their opponent this week, and by the middle of the 2^nd quarter Monday Night, the world will realize it.

Circa Survivor Pick: Kansas City

Last week 4-1, Season 17-13

Circa Survivor Picks

W1 - Denver

W2 - Baltimore

W3 - Tampa

W4 - Buffalo

W5 - Detroit

W6 - Green Bay