The Road to Santa Clara: The Bearded Talisman's WildCard Round picks

"Those who dare to fail miserably can achieve greatly" - John F. Kennedy

1. Panthers +10.5 vs Rams – The Rams get Davante Adams back from the hamstring injury and have the 2^nd best odds (+425) to win the Super Bowl.   Sean McVay is one of the best coaches in the league and Stafford may win the league MVP.   They have good team chemistry, know that the Super Bowl is in California and get to kick things off with a blowout win in Carolina against an 8-9 Panthers team, right?   Not so fast.    The Rams have trailed in the 2^nd half in each of their last 4 games, three of them against teams that did NOT make the playoffs (Lions, Falcons and Cardinals).  In that 4-game stretch, they have surrendered 119 points (29.75 points per game).   These two teams met in Charlotte on November 30th, and the Panthers WON 31-28.    I like the fact the Panthers had an extra day to prepare for this one having played last Saturday night rather than Sunday.   Also, the Rams have lost their last 2 games played in the Eastern time zone.  Possible rain in the forecast by kickoff might limit both QBs in the passing game.   

2. Bears +1.5 vs Packers – Green Bay looked like a possible Super Bowl team on SNF in Pittsburgh back in October.   Tight end Tucker Kraft had a jaw-dropping performance against the Steelers D and Micah Parsons was looking like he was worth the trade.   Since then the Packers have lost both Kraft and Parsons to season-ending injuries, along with many others.   The Packers enter the playoffs on a four-game losing streak.   Their defensive front 7 has gone from being one of the best in the league prior to Thanksgiving to arguably the worst front 7 in the playoffs.   The Bears started off the season with consecutive divisional losses, including a blowout loss in Week 2 at Detroit.    Guided by Ben Johnson, they’ve been able to turn the corner, with the biggest key to the turnaround being the offensive line.   Early in the season, they looked like one of the league’s worst offensive lines; now, they look like one of the best.   This has allowed Caleb Williams to gain confidence – and those WR/TEs he has to throw to are really good, and Odunze is back tonight.   Ben Johnson and Caleb Williams get it done and the Bears advance.

3. Bills +1.5 at Jaguars – Yes I know the Jags have won 8 straight, but 6 of those wins came against some of the worst teams (Tenn twice, Indy twice, Arizona and the Jets) in the league, and the two wins they had against winning teams (vs LAC and at Denver) during that stretch came in situations they drew the opponent at the exact right time – LAC were on a short week heading into their bye, and Denver really didn’t need the win for playoff positioning.    The Bills have won 5 of 6 heading into this one and are you really going to bet Trevor Lawrence over Josh Allen, especially when Josh Allen has James Cook?   Bills win, and not close.

4. Eagles -6.0 vs 49ers – The Super Bowl is in the 49ers home stadium in Santa Clara, and Kyle Shanahan had his team within reach of getting the coveted number 1 seed in the NFC playoffs.   Unfortunately for the 49ers they lost the season finale in SF last week to Seattle, and they fell from the #1 seed to the #6 seed.   In that game, the 49ers also lost yet another defensive player for the season to injury in linebacker Tatum Bethune.    2 of their remaining starting linebackers are listed as questionable for this game.   On the offensive side of the ball, they are not entirely healthy either, as Hall of Fame left tackle Trent Williams is battling a hamstring injury, and starting WR Ricky Pearsall has not practiced all week due to a leg injury.   The Eagles are the defending Super Bowl champions, are playing in Philly, and have one of the league’s best defenses.   They also play some of the best special teams in the league.  The big question mark for Philly is on the offensive side of the ball, but I think it will be masked this week against a depleted 49ers defense who knows their Super Bowl chances went up in flames in last Saturday's loss to Seattle.  

5. Chargers +3.5 at Patriots – My older brother used to say having a great QB solves a lot of problems.   Having a great head coach does the same (ask Bears fans).   It does not hurt to have a good defense too.  In Herbert and Harbaugh we might have the best quarterback/head coach combination in the playoffs.   The season started for the Chargers in Brazil on a Friday night in September with a win over the Chiefs.   By mid-season they had lost both starting offensive tackles, and in early November they lost 35-6 to the Jags, and then Herbert broke his non-throwing hand against the Raiders in late November.    Through it all the Chargers have been resilient.   In the final six games of the regular season, the Chargers did not surrender more than 20 points in any game, and the Chargers WR/TE corps is arguably as loaded as any team in the league.    Harbaugh is a championship coach, and with a good defense and a quarterback whose talent just screams at you, I believe things are about to break their way.    Yes, the Patriots are 14-3, but they played the weakest schedule of any team in the league.   The last playoff team they beat was Buffalo on October 5^th, 2025, and the only other playoff team they beat was Carolina back in September.   The Chargers cover and win this one straight up.

6. Texans -3.0 at Steelers – The Steelers offense broke out for 23 second half points against the Ravens last week, but that was immediately AFTER all-world Ravens safety Kyle Hamilton exited the game due to injury and did not return.   Up until that point, Rodgers had gone 6 straight quarters without a touchdown, the longest such stretch of his career.   Yes, DK Metcalf was out due to suspension the last two weeks, but anyone who has watched the Steelers this year knows DK has not played well – only averages just under 4 catches a game.    Now the Steelers face the Texans – who have the #1 ranked defense in the NFL in terms of yards allowed.   And unlike the Ravens D, the Texans D is a whole lot deeper than 1 or 2 talented players.  Simply put, the Steelers have no Tier 1 caliber players on offense.   The Texans D should be able to control them without issue – which brings us to the biggest key to this game – C.J. Stroud.    After a tremendous rookie campaign in 2023, Stroud regressed in 2024 – was sacked 52 times and threw 12 interceptions.   Yes, he was missing some key WRs and his offensive line didn’t play that well, but he still made a lot of bad decisions – took too many sacks when he could have thrown the ball away.   This year he’s only been sacked 23 times – the line is playing better and so is C.J., and he has better wideouts – but he still makes a lot of mistakes and near-mistakes.   TJ Watt and Cam Heyward are the type of defensive players that make you pay for mistakes.   Bottom line -  If C.J. Stroud plays well, the Texans will win this game and they will likely win easily.   If he plays just OK/so-so, the Texans will likely still win.   The only scenario I see the Texans losing this game is if Stroud has a bad game and his errors lead to defensive touchdowns or field position points for the Steelers.   I’m in the camp he plays a so-so game and the Texans prevail, and the Steelers will go their 9^th consecutive season without a playoff win.