The Road to Santa Clara: The Bearded Talisman's Super Bowl LX (60) bets

"I am Sam.   I am Sam.   Sam I am…..I do not like Green Eggs and Ham.   I do not like Sam Darnold…Sam-I-Am!!!!”

Patriots +4.5 vs Seahawks - UNDER 45.5 – Sam Darnold led the league in turnovers this season with 20 (14 interceptions and 6 fumbles).   In his last 3 games he has had zero turnovers, but during that stretch he faced a depleted 49ers defense TWICE and a bad Rams defense that allowed 28 points per game over its final 7 games.   Playing in Seattle is a huge advantage, but Super Bowl LX (60) is in Santa Clara.  

The Patriots defense has had 12 sacks and forced 8 turnovers since the start of the postseason.   Counting the last 3 games of the regular season they have 18 sacks and have forced 13 turnovers.    A defense that is red hot getting sacks and turnovers vs a quarterback who leads the NFL in turnovers:   Advantage Patriots.   And Darnold’s history away from home in big games is not good.   Last year in the regular season finale for the number 1 seed, the Darnold-led Vikings lost 31-9.   The following week they lost 27-9 to the Rams in the Wildcard on a neutral site in Arizona.   Darnold was very poor in both games, which is one of the major reasons the Vikings chose not to pursue him in free agency.    This year, in the regular season finale on the road in Santa Clara (SF), Darnold and the Seahawks did win, but his offense only generated 13 points.     

And don’t forget one of Seattle’s two stud running backs – Zach Charbonnet – suffered a season-ending injury in the Divisional vs San Fran.   His loss is not insignificant, especially in the red zone.   For the season he had 730 yards rushing and 12 touchdowns.  And don’t expect Seahawks star wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba (JSN) to have a great game with Coach Vrabel being a Bill Belichick disciple – Coach Belichick always liked to take away your best player and let the other guys beat you, so a heavy focus will be taking away JSN.  That means Cooper Kupp (maybe worth a look at 80-1 for MVP) and Kenneth Walker will need to have big games for Seattle.

There is a reason Sam Darnold has played for 5 different teams in eight seasons, and those reasons will be evident Sunday night in Santa Clara.

So Darnold’s struggles mean the Patriots will win right?   Not so fast.   In the Seahawks last 12 games involving teams NOT named the Rams, the Seahawks have only allowed 135 points (11.25 per/game).  Drake Maye is only in his 2^nd season and has not looked all that great this postseason:  had an INT and a fumble against the Chargers, had 3 turnovers against the Texans and then went 10 for 21 for 86 yards in the AFC title game in Denver.     Even with the experience of Josh McDaniels as his offensive coordinator, I do not envision Maye and the Patriots moving the ball well consistently against this Seahawks defense.   I look for a heavy dose of Rhamondre Stevenson and TreVeyon Henderson and a mostly conservative approach, but that does not necessarily mean a losing approach.   Keep in mind 44 year-old Philip Rivers nearly beat the Seahawks in Seattle with this approach, losing 18-16 on a 56 yard field goal late.

Tom Brady won 6 Super Bowls with the Patriots.   One of Brady’s greatest traits was not making mistakes and riding a good defense.   Sure he had a strong and accurate throwing arm, but his calling card was making good decisions.   This is a winning formula and one quite frankly the Broncos could have rode to Santa Clara if not for a questionable decision not to kick a field goal in the AFC Title game.    Another lucky win for the Patriots right?   Sometimes in life you create your own luck.

Patriots 17 Seahawks 13

Bet 1:   UNDER 45.5

Bet 2:   Will Sam Darnold throw at least 1 interception (-126) ?   YES

Bet 3: Will Sam Darnold throw at least 2 interceptions (+341) ? YES

Bet 4:   Will the Super Bowl MVP be a defensive player (10-1) ?   YES