The Road to Santa Clara: "Houston Oilers (Texans) Number One!"

“We’re in the air, we’re on the ground….always in control,

And when you say the Oilers (Texans), you’re talking Super Bowl

‘Cause we’re the Houston Oilers (Texans), Houston Oilers (Texans), Houston Oilers (Texans), Number One”

Since Kaylee Norton showed up on November 9th, Braxton Berrios and the Texans have won 10 straight.

Texans +3.0 at Patriots – On November 9^th the Houston Texans had a record of 3-5 and were starting a backup QB and were trailing 29-10 in the 4^th quarter to Jacksonville.   In a stunning turn of events, the Texans rallied to win the game and have not lost since.    The Texans did not allow a first down in the 4^th quarter comeback win against Jacksonville.   In a pivotal game on December 7^th on Sunday Night Football in Kansas City, the defense showed up big in the 4^th quarter again, holding the Chiefs to just 43 yards on five 4^th quarter possessions COMBINED.   They finished with the NFL’s number one ranked defense in terms of yards allowed.   In last week’s Wildcard win in Pittsburgh, they only surrendered 175 total yards and scored two 4^th quarter defensive touchdowns.     And how about the Texans kicker Ka’imi Fairbairn.   44 makes out of 48 field goal attempts during the regular season, and that 51 yard FG in the 4^th quarter last week with the Texans clinging to a 7-6 lead was CLUTCH.   If the game is on the line, and he needs to make a kick, he will make it.   I trust Fairbairn over ANY of the remaining six kickers in the playoffs.   This brings us to the Texans offense.    The offensive line is vastly improved from last season and Woody Marks is a very good running back.   While Nico Collins is out (concussion) this week, the Texans remaining WRs/TEs (Kirk, Schultz, Higgins, etc) showed last week they can get open and make plays.   At the end of the day it all boils down to quarterback C.J. Stroud and his decision making.   He turned it over three times in the first half last week on plays that were more mental mistakes than physical.   He has to sense the rush better; and, he has to learn that sometimes throwing it away is the best option.    In the last year’s divisional round loss to Kansas City – a game in which I attended -  Stroud was sacked 8 times, and yes the offensive line play was poor that day, but on some of the sacks he should have thrown the ball away.   That’s the negative with C.J., but I will give him credit for some very good deep ball throws last week to Kirk.   He was a number 1 pick (2^nd overall) for a reason – he has the talent to flip the switch and be an impact player for positive reasons, not negative.   As far as the Patriots, Mike Vrabel has done an outstanding job along with Super Bowl Champion offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels.   Drake Maye is in the regular season MVP discussion.  But against a good Chargers defense last week they were a bit sluggish – only scoring 16 points - and I just don’t see them moving the ball well against this Texans D.  For the Patriots to create points they are going to have to force turnovers and score with their defense and special teams – This will be much harder to do since they are playing Houston, not the Chargers.   At the end of the day, I think C.J. plays better this week than last, and it’s Drake Maye who will make more mistakes.   The Texans will grab the lead by halftime, and as the weather turns worse in the 2^nd half, they will turn their edge rushers loose and force game-changing plays, like they have done EVERY week since November 9^th.

Final Score Prediction:  Texans 23 Patriots 13

Bears +3.5 vs Rams – The disturbing trend with the Rame is that they have allowed 150 points over the last 5 games, and 4 of those 5 games were against teams that finished the year with LOSING records.   They lost cornerback Ahkello Witherspoon for the season in Carolina last week, and now they are starting Darious Wiliams, who was a healthy scratch last week.   While the Rams depth at corner is Ok, they don’t have anyone with Witherspoon’s size, and the Bears will look to exploit that with their big wide receivers (Odunze, Burden III and Odunze).     The disturbing trend with the Bears is similar.   They gave up 42 points and 496 yards in a loss at San Francisco on December 28^th,  and they gave up 421 yards offense last week in the Wildcard win against Green Bay.   They also lost linebacker T.J. Edwards for the season against Green Bay.   So even in these elements (sub-zero wind chill), the game sets up well for scoring – two elite play-callers against two very suspect defenses.    The Rams get starting right guard Kevin Dotson back this week, so the Rams running game gets a boost.   But there is the MAJOR unknown with Stafford’s throwing hand after getting dinged up in Carolina.   Also, and Coach Ben Johnson highlights this, how many times are the Bears going to get off to slow starts offensively?   Last week 3 points for the Bears in the first half, the week before zero points for the first 3 quarters against the Lions.   Even when they put up 38 points in San Fran 3 weeks ago, they went 3 and out on their first two possessions.   I lean Rams moneyline in this one based on more offensive consistency, but it would not shock me to see the Bears prevail.   The OVER 48.5 is probably the best bet in this one.  

Final Score Prediction:   Rams 34 Bears 31

Wildcard round 4-2, 2-0 so far this weekend (sorry for no article yesterday, I was at Pet Hospital ER)

The Bearded Talisman's Bets for today's divisional round games: