The Bearded Talisman's Week 11 NFL Picks

1. Bengals +5.5 at Steelers – Pitt has 2 starting linebackers OUT, and it’s a dicey situation also with their banged up secondary, especially with Chase and Higgins coming to town.   The Bengals are coming off a bye week, and should have no trouble whatsoever scoring on the Steeler D.   Since Flacco took over 4 games ago, the Bengals are averaging nearly 33 points per game.   The Steelers offense registered only 1 touchdown in last week’s stink bomb in LA, and it was in mop up time.   Rodgers seems off, their offense line is average at best and DK is not producing like a #1 wide receiver.   As crazy as it sounds, if the Bengals win this game they are right back in the AFC North hunt.

2. Packers -7.0 at Giants – As bad as the last two weeks have been for the Packers, getting to play the Giants is a jolt of champagne.   The Giants have several key players OUT due to injury on both sides of the ball, they just fired their coach, they have lost 4 straight….basically the Giants season is over.   The Packers defense is very good, and they are right in the middle of the playoff hunt.     The motivation is still there for the Pack, and they win big this week. 

3. Ravens -7.5 at Browns – The Browns just got rolled by the Jets.   The Ravens have won 3 straight, outscoring their opponents 85-41 in that span.  How do you against LaMar Jackson in this spot?  At 13-1 odds, the Ravens may be pound for pound the best bet to win the Super Bowl.   They have a relatively easy path to win the division, and if they head into the playoffs rested…..this one is all Ravens.

4. Chiefs -3.5 at Broncos – Chiefs need the game more than the Broncos.   Chiefs are coming off a bye week.  JK Dobbins is OUT for Denver.   Patrick Surtain is OUT for Denver.    The Chiefs offensive line gets a huge boost with Josh Simmons returning at left tackle.   As much as it feels like everything is going the Broncos way this year, and everything has not gone the Chiefs way this year, when you step back from this, this game on paper should be a mismatch in favor of the Chiefs.   If we have learned anything from this season, it’s that the prospects of teams change immensely from week to week, and I think the Chiefs flip the script this week.

5. Cowboys -3.5 at Raiders – Whether the trades made sense in the long-term or not, the Cowboys got much better in the short-term on defense at the trade deadline.    The Raiders offense is not good, and Dak and the Cowboys will get back on track this week coming off the bye.   Raiders are going to Raider.

   
   

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