The Bearded Talisman's 2025 PGA Championship bets

1. Scottie Scheffler to WIN (+425) – The current world #1 ranked golfer has spent 139 weeks at #1, recently passing Dustin Johnson for 3rd most weeks as #1 all-time.   In his most recent tournament he shot 31 under to win the Byron Nelson by EIGHT strokes.  In his last 4 starts, he finished T-2nd (Houston Open), 4th at Augusta, T-8th at RBC and 1st at the Byron Nelson.  He’s never won a major other than the Masters, and he’s motivated to capture a 2nd leg of the career grand slam on a course Rory “owns”.   With all of the foot action on his tee shots, Scottie does not like wet conditions, but the rain expected for early this week in Charlotte should clear by Thursday, with good playing conditions expected throughout the weekend.   Only time will tell whether Scottie is “The NEXT Tiger Woods”, but gun to my head, he’s my top pick this weekend.

2. Patrick Cantlay to WIN (45-1) – In his last 17 starts since last year’s T-3rd at the US Open, Cantlay has made every cut and has five Top 5s, including a T-4th last week at The Truist in Philadelphia.   On his IG account Sunday, he said his game “feels solid”, and he was T-1st in Philly for greens in regulation.   Ranked 14th in the world, Cantlay has not won since late 2022.   I can remember in early 2022 watching him lose to Scottie Scheffler on the 3rd hole of a playoff at Waste Management.   A woman in the crowd yelled at Cantlay on one of the playoff holes, saying “Can you let somebody else win?!”   Ironically, since that moment, Scheffler has won 14 times and Cantlay only once, and fans are now directing their “let others win” chants at Scheffler.   Cantlay has earned $75 million playing the PGA Tour and he is playing his best golf in over 2 years.   A FEDEX Cup champion, the moment is not too big for him.  

3. Hideki Matsuyama to WIN (45-1) –  Anyone who follows Hideki knows he’s an immense talent, but it’s hard to project his performance on a week to week basis.   Even when he won The Masters in 2021, he had 2 missed cuts and had zero Top 10s in the nine events leading up to Augusta.   Like Augusta, Matsuyama is a horse for the course at Quail Hollow, having made the cut every time he has played there.   In 2017 when Justin Thomas won the PGA Championship at Quail Hollow, it was Matsuyama who led heading into the weekend before he ultimately finished T-5th.   Hideki has ten Top-10s in majors and has not missed a cut in a major since 2019.   He made 9 birdies on Saturday at The Truist – and 8 of them were inside 10’ 6”, so he’s sticking his approaches.   This could play out like the 2021 Masters for Hideki where he just blows away the competition on a course he loves.   

4. Xander Schauffele to WIN (22-1) – The 2024 PGA Championship winner, Schauffele is elite in every aspect of his game.   No weaknesses.   Had the intercostal strain earlier in the year but has finished in the top 18 in all of his four starts since returning, including a T-11th last week at The Truist.  He nearly drove the green on back to back Par 4s to start his final round 66 in Philly on Sunday, leaving no shadow of a doubt regarding his injury status.   Ask any tour pro who the best player in the world is besides Scheffler and McIlroy, and nearly all will tell you Schauffele, and many would put Xander ahead of Rory.  At 22-1, he’s sitting at the same odds that Brooks Koepka won with at the 2023 PGA Championship.  The 3rd ranked player in the world, X-man has the game to repeat.

5. Patrick Reed for Top 5 (11-1) – The last five non-LIV events Reed has participated in he’s made the Top 10 in 4 of them, including finishing 3rd at this year’s Masters - a result which put him into this year’s PGA Championship field via OWGR.   In 2017, he finished T-2nd to Thomas at Quail Hollow and he has eight Top 10s in his career in majors.   He’s made 11 straight cuts in majors, and at age 34, Reed is in the prime of his career.   I like a lot about his chances:  he had to play his way into the field, which is hard for a LIV golfer with no exemptions to do – he has a good history on this course – and, he plays well in majors.    He also appears to be in the best shape of his life.  If you feel like risking a bit more, take him at 90-1 to win, or if you feel like risking less, take him at +450 for Top 10.

Editor's note: The Bearded Talisman (BT) is one of the most successful golf gamblers in the world. He has won seven majors pre-tourney, including the 2024 Open, the 2023 Masters and the 2023 PGA Championship. BT is the only sports gambler known to have completed the COVID Slam, winning all 4 golf majors within a 12 month period. https://www.mylifeontheline.com/post/the-covid-slam   He resides in Kansas City, and is often seen in The Woodlands, Texas area with his two close friends Kaylee and Charlee Kay.