“It’s Now or NEVER” - The Bearded Talisman’s Three Peat* Super Bowl LIX Preview

“I spent a lifetime waiting for the right time, now that you’re near, the time is here, at last, It’s now or never” – Elvis Presley

The 2024 NFL season officially began on September 5th, 2024, but the drive to Three Peat* actually started on January 30th, 2022.   The Bengals defeated the Chiefs 27-24 in overtime to win the AFC Championship.    The Chiefs blew an 18-point lead at home and their fans left Arrowhead stunned.  Less than two months later, on March 23, 2022, the Chiefs traded star wide receiver Tyreek Hill, and since then the Chiefs – who wisely used the haul of draft picks obtained from the Dolphins for Hill - have gone to three straight Super Bowls.   

If the Chiefs win this Sunday, they will be the first team to win 3 consecutive Super Bowls – or Three Peat* – a phrase copyrighted by former LA Lakers coach Pat Riley, who ironically NEVER Three Peated.  The two-time defending champion Chiefs are 17-2 on the season, and went 17-1 in games they actually tried to win.  Their opponent is the Philadelphia Eagles, who have gone 17-3 on the season and are the number one ranked team in the NFL per Sagarin computer rankings.   The Chiefs and the Eagles met two years ago in Super Bowl LVII, in which the Chiefs won 38-35.   No Super Bowl rematch has ever resulted in the team that lost the first contest winning the rematch. 

In their 3 Super Bowl wins under Patrick Mahomes, the Chiefs have taken an unconventional route to victory.   In all 3 cases, the Chiefs fell behind by double digits, including being down 24-14 to the Eagles two years ago.    The Chiefs hope to NOT stick with that  “winning” formula, given the Eagles have the number one ranked defense in the NFL and a Hall of Fame running back in Saquon Barkley.    

Unlike last year’s Super Bowl in which the Chiefs entered the game missing key starters (OL Joe Thuney and DL Charles Omenihu), the Chiefs are probably the most healthy they have ever been entering a Super Bowl under Andy Reid and Mahomes.   The WR corps has improved so greatly over the course of the season people have forgotten about the season-ending injury to Rashee Rice in Week 4.   The Eagles are for the most part healthy, although they lost starting linebacker Nakobe Dean (knee) for the season in the wildcard game against Green Bay.   Dean had 128 tackles and 3 sacks on the season.  

A concern I have with the Eagles is the flakiness of their offense.   They tend to dominate average to below average defenses, such as the 55 point outbreak in the NFC Championship Game against a banged-up Commanders D.   They handled the Rams D well also – they easily could have scored more than 28 if not for a big dropped pass by A.J. Brown inside the 5 before half, and a false start penalty by Lane Johnson at the 1 in the 2nd half.   But when the Eagles faced the NFL’s 6th rated D in the Packers in the Wildcard round, they struggled.   After recovering a fumble on the opening kickoff and converting it for a touchdown, the Eagles only scored 3 points on their next six possessions COMBINED.   Like the Packers D, the Chiefs defense is also a Top 10 ranked defense, including being ranked 8th against the run, and Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo is one of the all-time great defensive coordinators.  

A second concern I have with the Eagles is that they have regressed on defense in the last two games.    They surrendered 402 yards offense to the Rams in the divisional, including allowing 106 yards rushing to Kyren Williams.    They also allowed 350 yards offense to the Commanders in the NFC Championship.  Fortunately for the Eagles, the Rams and Commanders lost a combined 5 fumbles and had a red zone interception.   While I give the Eagles D credit for forcing those turnovers, I don’t think you can count on the Chiefs to do the same.   In the final 7 weeks of the regular season, the Chiefs had ZERO turnovers.   In the 2 playoff games, the Chiefs had 1 turnover, a fluke play in which Mahomes fumbled without being touched by a defender.

Certainly there are multiple concerns with the Chiefs.   All of their games seem to be close, whether they play the Bills or the Raiders.  Further, in the Chiefs 4 Super Bowls under Reid, they have fallen behind by double digits in ALL of them.    The Eagles are according to many computer rankings the best team in the league.   According to the Sagarin computer rankings, the Chiefs are only the SIXTH best team in the league.     

That said, I still like the Chiefs.   Over the last 2 regular season games in which they played their starters and the 2 playoff games, the Chiefs offense has shown marked improvement.   In that 4-game span, they are averaging 28 points per game, and all 4 of those games were against playoff teams (Pittsburgh, Houston twice, Buffalo).   A key tactical decision related to the offensive improvement is Andy Reid’s decision to move ALL-Pro Joe Thuney from left guard to left tackle.     That decision has stabilized the offensive line, and Mahomes has had gobs more time to throw than earlier in the season when the Chiefs were relying on unproven left tackles.

And how can you go against Patrick Lavon Mahomes, Jr. in this setting?    Especially given the fact the Chiefs have a healthy roster.   Especially given the fact the Chiefs have a more reliable kicker.   Especially given the fact the Chiefs have a very good defense.   Especially given the fact that Mahomes has talked about the Three Peat* since winning the Lombardi Trophy LAST year.  

This Chiefs organization is locked in, and it’s been that way for almost three years now.   After the January 2022 loss to the Bengals, Coach Reid and GM Brett Veach got the right people on the bus and kicked the wrong people off the bus.   They cemented a TEAM first mindset.   I can remember a brief conversation on the golf course with starting safety Justin Reid in May of last year.   I said “hey Justin, let’s Three Peat.”   Reid, who signed with the Chiefs shortly after the Hill trade replied, “Anything less would be a FAILURE.”  

When you pair incredible talent with the right mindset, an organization can achieve historic success.   The Chiefs will become the first team ever to Three Peat* Sunday night in New Orleans.    It’s now or never.   

Chiefs 26 Eagles 24